Copper: Forecast to September 2013

Copper is currently on the rebound, on the back of its third bearish cycle from February to April. Shanghai Cifco Futures Co. expects prices to climb until the end of June before pulling back to $6,037.50 per tonne by September.

Copper prices are up slightly in London, after inventories dropped to a seven-month low in China, the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metal, while U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest since 2007. Three-month copper climbed 1.1 percent on Thursday to sit at $7,279 per tonne. Copper was seeing resistance at the $7.240 per tonne, but the day’s climb seems to have broken that barrier. Over in New York, copper futures were behaving much the same. Copper for July was up 0.9 percent at $3.2945 a pound.

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Historical Nickel Price Tumbling, Takes Monthly Stainless Index Down

The Stainless MMI® took a rather large blow in May, falling 6 points from 91 to 85, primarily on the back of falling nickel prices, falling 304 prices in China as well as 304 China scrap prices.

A nickel glut has forced down the price by nearly about 50 percent since 2011, according to a recent Reuters report.

via Historical Nickel Price Tumbling, Takes Monthly Stainless Index Down | MetalMiner

China’s runaway steel train

By rights, many companies should have closed. Instead, they march on like zombies, China’s industrial undead.
China simply makes too much steel. The government estimates that China’s annual production is about 100 million tonnes more than it should be, a figure equal to the whole annual output of the industry in the United States.

Worse, China has far too many steel companies, more than 700 at last count. Add in iron companies and companies that roll or otherwise shape steel, and the total comes to more than 7,000. Despite repeated government attempts to force them to consolidate into fewer, bigger companies, most of them are still small and inefficient.

via China’s runaway steel train on Propurchaser.

Copper: the end of a cycle?

Copper prices have so far resisted the sharp fall in other metals prices since the outbreak of the crisis in the euro zone last year. But they are now below the $8,000 per tonne threshold. The copper cycle, which lasted for more than ten years now, might have reached its end.

Usually October is the beginning of a good period for purchases of copper in China, which typically continues throughout the fourth quarter. But this is not the case this year. Physical demand is low, to the point that the copper spot price in Chinese ports is less than the copper price in Shanghai, a very rare phenomenon. The Chinese industry – China represents 40% of world consumption – is not buying anymore and is just using its current copper stocks. In the USA, the recovery is very slow and in Europe, there is virtually no transaction…

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Steel: Demand to slow down in 2013

The Worldsteel Association, which includes almost all of the global steel producers, released its October 2012 Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2012 and 2013. Steel demand will slow down further in 2013: it will only be 2% in 2012, 3, 2% in 2013, against 6% over last year.

What strikes first is the slowdown in emerging countries: 3% additional steel consumption in 2012, a little more next year. It is far from the 10% growth a year for the last ten years. Among these countries, it’s in China that the growth will slow down most. Steel demand in China is expected to increase by 2.5% to 639.5 Mt in 2012 after 6.2% growth in 2011. In 2013, Government stimulus measures are likely to moderately improve the economic situation. This follows sluggish exports resulting from the global economic slowdown. Thus China’s apparent steel use is expected to rise by 3.1% and will reach 659.2 Mt in 2013.

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Nickel Slump Seen Ending as China Faces Ore Import Curbs

Nickel fell 12 percent this year on prospects for the biggest surplus since 2009. Morgan Stanley now predicts the glut will peak in 2012 and Barclays says prices should rally toward the end of the year on strengthening demand from stainless-steel makers, the biggest consumers.

The rebound may not happen until then as China runs down record ore stockpiles accumulated in anticipation of the Indonesian ban.

After slumping more than any other industrial metal, analysts and traders say the worst may be over for nickel as restrictions on shipments from Indonesia, the biggest producer, diminish a worldwide glut.

via Nickel Slump Seen Ending as China Faces Ore Import Curbs – Bloomberg.

Rare earths give China immense (and worrisome) influence (3/3): Rare earths demand

In this particular context of Chinese quasi-monopoly, the risk of an economic disaster is likely if this supply was to be put to the test. And this is precisely what has been happening for several years, and more explicitly since 2010.

Indeed, China has the will to move its workforce skills from upstream to downstream of many industrial sectors, and consequently has moved its rare earths production from simple mineral concentrates to industrial components such the magnets and phosphors to today finished products (computers, electric motors, mobile phones). Also, since 2007 it has protected its lanthanides domestic supply.

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Rare earths give China immense (and worrisome) influence (2/3): Rare earths production

To understand the stakes related to rare earths, we must address the myth of their rarity. Indeed, they are all more abundant than gold or silver in the earth’s crust, and their name actually reflects a relative rarity in minerals in which they are present (that is to say in low concentrations).

For example, lanthanides can be found in over 200 minerals, but only five of them have sufficient concentrations to be economically viable.

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates world reserves to be around 114 million tonnes, i.e. more than 800 years of consumption if the level of current demand is maintained. These reserves are spread between China (48%), CIS (17%), the U.S. (11%), India (3%) and Australia (1.4%). The remaining 19% are divided between Canada, Greenland, Malaysia, Brazil, South Africa, Malawi, Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia and a handful of other countries.

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Rare earths give China immense (and worrisome) influence (1/3): Rare earths usage

The stakes are significant: the rare earth elements have become key industries in developed countries, actors essentials of a multitude of industrial products, including applications designed to have their claims explode over the coming years, such as electric cars and wind turbines.

The supply of these precious minerals is highly constrained due to an incredible concentration in China, there will be no longer enough to satisfy everyone. And as China’s high-tech industries grow, supply issues will likely get only worse.

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Copper Heads for Record Weekly Gain, Industrial Metals Jump on Europe Pact

On the London Metal Exchange, copper for delivery in three months rose 6.1 percent to close at $8,145 a metric ton ($3.69 a pound) at 6:32 p.m. This week, the commodity has jumped 14 percent, poised for the biggest increase since Bloomberg data starts in April 1986.

Copper futures for December delivery advanced 5.8 percent to $3.692 a pound on the Comex in New York. This month, the price has surged 17 percent, heading for the largest gain since March 2009.

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