Disease Threatens Florida’s Citrus Industry

Florida’s citrus industry is grappling with the most serious threat in its history: a bacterial disease with no cure that has infected all 32 of the state’s citrus-growing counties. Although the disease, citrus greening, was first spotted in Florida in 2005, this year’s losses from it are by far the most extensive.

While the bacteria, which causes fruit to turn bitter and drop from the trees when still unripe, affects all citrus fruits, it has been most devastating to oranges, the largest crop. So many have been affected that the United States Department of Agriculture has downgraded its crop estimates five months in a row, an extraordinary move, analysts said.

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Weekly Orange Juice: Watch For A Price Bump

I expect to see orange juice prices pick up as we may be under way with futures appreciating 7% this week. As one can see, prices are bouncing off oversold levels and while past performance is not indicative of future results, let’s look at orange juice during the last four years.

Now in 2012 prices are starting from a depressed price and I think it is feasible into early 2013 to see orange juice prices gain 20% plus putting futures near $1.40; identified by the blue line and the 200-day MA.

Orange Juice Futures

via Weekly OJ: Watch For A Price Bump | Forexpros.

Sugar to Pile Up as Demand Stays Weak

Futures dropped to a two-year low in New York last week after drier weather in Brazil, the world’s biggest producer of the sweetener, accelerated harvesting, while improvement in rains last month in India, the second- largest grower, improved crop prospects. The sweetener has declined 31 percent in the past year on expectations that global supplies will top usage.

Sugar, trading near a two-year low, is set to pile up in producing countries next season as a lack of demand amid a global surplus forces growers to hold back supplies, according to Kingsman SA.

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Commodities: El Niño might be under way

The El Niño weather phenomenon has again emerged in the Pacific Ocean and could last until early winter, Japan Meteorological Agency said last weekend. El Niño results in the warming of surface waters across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years and can cause hurricanes, floods or droughts.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said although El Niño development stalled during the second half of July, “over the past fortnight indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index and trade wind strength have shown renewed trends that are consistent with the early stages of an El Nino event.”

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World food price crisis: 6% increase in July

According to FAO, global food prices have bounced back by 6% in July after several months of decline. This increase is mainly due to soaring prices for cereals and sugar: over 17% for cereals and 12% for sugar. The FAO food price index has rebounded significantly in July to 213 points vs. 201 in June.

The Rome-based institution said in a statement that the increase was mainly due to a jump in prices for cereals and sugar, and more moderate increases of oils and fats. International prices of meat and dairy products remained more or less unchanged. If this trend continues, the February 2011 peak of 238 points that started in July 2010 could be rapidly reached. It could be similar since in both cases, soaring grain prices were the original trigger.

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Food price worry as US corn, soybeans in worst state since 1988

U.S. corn and soybean crops, the world’s largest, are in the worst condition since the last major drought in America’s breadbasket in 1988, the government said on Monday, pushing up grain prices and raising the prospect of global food-price inflation.

Corn and soybean prices soared at the Chicago Board of Trade, based on forecasts that thirsty crops will get no relief for at least another week, although a record-shattering heatwave abated over the weekend in the eastern half of the country.

via Food price worry as US corn, soybeans in worst state since 1988 – Reuters.

Corn Prices Soar as Midwest Bakes

Corn prices soared toward new highs on Monday amid growing fears that the drought scorching the U.S. Midwest will prove to be the harshest in decades. The hot, dry weather could cut the U.S. harvest this autumn by more than 1 billion bushels below the federal government’s forecast of two months ago, leaving domestic supplies relatively tight, analysts say.

Corn futures for July delivery jumped 4% to $7.7525 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, extending gains to 29% in the past three weeks, as intense heat and a dearth of rainfall punish parts of big corn-growing states like Illinois, Indiana, Iowa and Ohio. Corn prices are just cents away from the nominal record $7.9975 a bushel reached in June 2011, when prices were rising because of worries about flood damage.

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U.S. sees surge in corn stocks, fewer soybeans

Record-large corn and rice crops are forecast worldwide, with corn up 9 percent and rice up marginally. The wheat supply would drop by 2 percent and soybeans stocks will rise by 9 percent but still not as much as traders expected. It would be the sixth year in a row for record world corn production.

The U.S. Agriculture Department‘s first estimates for this year’s harvest and next year’s demand showed that domestic corn stocks will surge from a near record low this year to a seven-year high by September 2013, aided by expected record yields this year as farmers sprinted to plant an early crop.

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Corn Prices Surge on Export Sales

Corn prices jumped 4.6% after the federal government reported the sixth-largest export sale ever for the grain, which analysts believe is headed for China.

But the confirmation of a big sale renewed concerns that Chinese demand could stretch already-tight U.S. inventories of corn, pushing prices above their trading range of the past two weeks.

Corn for May delivery rose 29 cents, to settle at $6.53 a bushel Friday at the Chicago Board of Trade.

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Corn, Wheat, Soy Rise, Renewing Food-Inflation Concern

Corn prices surged the most since June 2010, wheat had its biggest gain in five months, and soybeans rallied after government forecasts signaled tighter U.S. crop supplies, renewing concerns that food inflation will quicken.

On the Chicago Board of Trade, corn futures for May delivery jumped by the exchange limit of 40 cents, or 6.6 percent, to close at $6.44 a bushel at 1:15 p.m. That was the biggest gain for a most-active contract since June 30, 2010. The advance pared the decline for the quarter to 0.4 percent.

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