Lumber prices forecast trimmed for 2013 despite U.S. housing surge

Despite a resurgence in U.S. housing construction expected to boost lumber prices, a 21 per cent drop in the cash price since mid-March and lower future prices have prompted several analysts to trim about five per cent off their 2013 price forecasts.

Western SPF spruce-pine-fir softwood prices are now expected to increase 20 per cent, on top of the 16 per cent increase realized in 2012. RBC and CIBC now expect prices will average between US$350 and US$360 per thousand board feet in 2013, which is about $20 lower than earlier forecasts, but up from US$299 in 2012.

Analyst Paul Quinn of RBC Capital Markets maintained his outlook for 2014 at US$400, but lowered his price in 2013 to US$350, from US$370.He also reduced his forecasts for OSB oriented strand board and plywood.

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US lumber futures fall most in 18 months as exports plunge

U.S. lumber futures fell nearly 2 percent on Friday, capping their deepest streak of losses in 1-1/2 years as a resurgence in the domestic housing market was overshadowed by plunging wood exports from the U.S. West Coast.

CME lumber for July delivery on Friday settled $5.80 lower at $297.40 per tbf, the lowest price since Oct. 24,  and dipping below the threshold of $300 per thousand board feet for the first time since October.

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Lumber Prices Rise Most Since 1993: Lumber Mills Expand

Analysts forecast lumber prices will be 9.8% above the current  November contract and the highest for the period since 1996, as North American mills saw lumber at the fastest pace in 6 years after a recovering U.S. housing market, a beetle infestation in Canada, and increasing Chinese demand drove the biggest price surge in two decades.

About 55.5 billion of the industry’s standard board feet will be made this year, 6.7 percent more than in 2012, CIBC World Markets estimates. Futures will average $371 per 1,000 board feet on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the fourth quarter, according to the mean of nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

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OSB prices double in 12 months

Commodity Price Index that prices for OSB, which has replaced plywood in most North American housing applications, surged in February to $430 US a thousand square feet, up 100 per cent year-over-year.

The recovering U.S. housing market has pushed profit margins up to stratospheric heights for oriented strand board OSB producers, whose engineered wood panels are outperforming lumber in the red-hot forest products sector.

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Lumber Reaches 6-Year High as Housing Rebound Erodes U.S. Supply

Lumber futures rose to a six-year high, extending a 2012 rally that is one of the biggest among commodities, on mounting signs of tighter supplies as U.S. home construction rebounds.

Lumber futures for January delivery gained 0.9 percent to settle at $358.20 per 1,000 board feet at 1:05 p.m. on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, after touching $360.80, the highest since April 2006.

Prices have surged 37 percent this year, more than any of the 24 commodities tracked by the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Spot Index. Lumber has more than doubled since January 2009, when the recession and a collapse in the U.S. housing market left a glut of wood. Since then, output plunged in Russia while China boosted imports, limiting supplies in North America just as demand rebounds, according to International Wood Markets Group.

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Lumber at 18-month high; Cotton at 5-month

Lumber prices shot higher this week, reaching the highest price in over 18 months, spurred on by a stronger housing market.

On Wednesday, the US Commerce Department released figures showing that new home construction in September reached an annualized rate of 872,000, the highest figure in over four years.

Lumber rallied over $20 +7% per thousand board feet this week, reaching $318.70 on Friday morning.

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Lumber prices on the way up

Spot prices for Western softwood lumber made from spruce, pine and fir trees have steadily increased this year, rising 24 per cent since January to US$310 per thousand board feet in August, said a Canadian Press article.

North American lumber prices are set to surge in the next couple of years amid a tightened supply from Canada as the U.S. housing market continues to strengthen after years of weakness, a new CIBC report predicts.

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Improving US Housing Demand Boosts Lumber

Softwood lumber prices have been strengthening in 2012 and producers are expected to report healthy third-quarter financial results. U.S. data for the month of August shows new housing starts at an annual rate of 750,000, up 12.8 per cent over August 2011 and up 2.3 per cent over July.

“From what we can see, this looks like a solid recovery,” Gerry Van Leeuwen, vice-president of the Vancouver research firm Wood Markets, said of the U.S. housing market. “The builders and the lumber dealers (in the U.S.) are pretty excited. They think this is for real; that the recovery is really happening.”

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Lumber prices poised to rise as U.S. housing recovers

North American lumber prices are set to increase further in the coming couple of years as the U.S. housing market continues to strengthen from years of weakness, a new CIBC report predicts.

Spot prices for Western softwood lumber made from spruce, pine and fir trees have steadily increased this year, rising 24 per cent since January to $310 (U.S.) per 1,000 board feet in August.

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Increased demand for lumber in North America

The improved markets for lumber have put upward pressure on lumber prices. During the past 12 months, southern yellow pine (SYP) prices have gone up almost 37%, while spruce-pine-fir (SPF) prices in Canada have increased by about 35%.

The North American lumber market has, to a large extent, been a buyers market since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008, but is now shifting to a sellers market with the increase in demand for lumber by the huge US market. In May, lumber consumption in the US was 13 % higher than in May of 2011. The May 2012 consumption level was actually the highest seen for the month of May since 2008.

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