Posted: November 5th, 2013 | Author: Rod Sherkin | Filed under: China, Cotton | Tags: cotton, cotton china, cotton future, cotton price, cotton stock, cotton stockpile, cotton supply | No Comments »
Cotton fell almost 19 percent to 75.85 cents a pound on ICE Futures U.S. in New York since reaching a 16-month closing high of 93.32 cents on Aug. 16. Traders say they expect the state-owned company that controls China’s cotton reserve to sell some of its massive stockpile by the end of the year.
China is hoarding a record amount of cotton to aid farmers as global production exceeds demand for a fourth consecutive year, increasing the risk of a supply surge that would tip prices into a bear market.
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Posted: October 24th, 2013 | Author: Rod Sherkin | Filed under: Cotton, USA | Tags: cotton, cotton future, cotton price, cotton supply | No Comments »
Cotton prices fell to a nine-month low after data showed demand for the fiber has waned just as production is ramping up, as favorable weather conditions in key cotton-growing states in the U.S. was likely to boost the pace of the harvest. .
Cotton for delivery in December ended 1.8% lower at 79.21 cents a pound, the lowest settlement for the most actively traded contract since Jan. 18 on the ICE Futures U.S. exchange. Cotton prices are down 9.2% for the month.
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Posted: October 8th, 2013 | Author: Pascal Blanc | Filed under: Agricultural, Commodities, Corn, Cotton, Food, Soybaens, USA | Tags: commodities, commodities market, US government shutdown | No Comments »
The US government shutdown is starting to disrupt commodity markets. Beyond its budget gridlock, the United States could default on its debt if no agreement is reached in Congress by Thursday of next week. This threat to the world’s largest economy has slightly brought down the oil market last week, but is not taken seriously by the commodity markets.
However, the paralysis of a large part of the US administration is already disrupting markets. Since last Tuesday, for example, the US Department of Agriculture has not published any report: no information on U.S. exports last Thursday, no statistics on U.S. agriculture production. It is also unlikely that next Friday, the monthly key report on global supply and demand for agriculture products will be available. But, this USDA report is the reference for the global markets and it can greatly influence global grain prices up or down at a key period, the harvest of corn and soybeans.
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Posted: September 17th, 2013 | Author: Pascal Blanc | Filed under: China, Commodities, Cotton | Tags: cotton, cotton china, cotton future, cotton outlook, cotton price, cotton production, cotton stock | 2 Comments »
China is the largest importer of raw cotton in the global market. In 2011, the Chinese government began stockpiling cotton in an effort to support domestic farmers through the establishment of purchase prices.
In 2012, the government stockpiled 85% of total domestic output and this purchasing program is set to continue throughout 2013.
China plans to end its cotton stockpiling program and will instead consider subsidizing domestic producers, according to a Reuters news report. Details are sketchy, however, and the new policy may take a year or more to implement.
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Posted: July 29th, 2013 | Author: Pascal Blanc | Filed under: China, Commodities, Cotton | Tags: cotton, cotton future, cotton price, cotton production | No Comments »
The December cotton contract closed below its 50- and 100-day moving averages at 85.24 cents and 85.72 cents on Monday, an indication of technical pressure in a market that has been largely range-bound in recent sessions. Trading volumes totaled fewer than 11,000 contracts, compared with a 30-day average of over 24,000 lots, preliminary Thomson Reuters data showed.
China probably will harvest 7.22 million metric tons in the 12 months that start Aug. 1, more than the 7.05 million forecast in June, researcher Cotlook Ltd. said yesterday in a report. Global production will exceed demand by 2.14 million tons, or 5 percent more than forecast last month, Cotlook said.
“People weren’t expecting those numbers,” Michael Smith, the president of T&K Futures & Options in Port St. Lucie, Florida, said in a telephone interview. “We’re going to continue to see increased supply and decreased demand.”
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Posted: December 5th, 2012 | Author: Pascal Blanc | Filed under: Commodities, Cotton | Tags: cotton, cotton future, cotton outlook, cotton price, cotton production, cotton stock | No Comments »
“Global cotton production will decrease by 11 percent to 23.2 million tons (106.56 million bales) in 2013-14 due to lower cotton prices and increased attractiveness of competing crops”, says the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in its latest market outlook published this week.
Cotton values have fallen by two-thirds from their all-time highs reached in March 2011, depressed by the run-up in inventories encouraged by higher values. The prospect of a dip in cotton production follows assessments by US Department of Agriculture officials of the implications of low prices working their way through to southern hemisphere growers, in countries such as Australia and Brazil.
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Posted: October 20th, 2012 | Author: Rod Sherkin | Filed under: Cotton, Lumber | Tags: cotton, cotton price, lumber, lumber price, usa | No Comments »
Lumber prices shot higher this week, reaching the highest price in over 18 months, spurred on by a stronger housing market.
On Wednesday, the US Commerce Department released figures showing that new home construction in September reached an annualized rate of 872,000, the highest figure in over four years.
Lumber rallied over $20 +7% per thousand board feet this week, reaching $318.70 on Friday morning.
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Posted: October 11th, 2012 | Author: Pascal Blanc | Filed under: Agricultural, Commodities, Corn, Cotton, Food, Soybaens | Tags: agriculture, commodities, Corn, cotton, soybean | No Comments »
USDA released today its October Crop Production report which shows corn production down slightly from September forecast, soybean production up 9% and cotton production up 1%.
Corn production is forecast at 10.7 billion bushels, down slightly from the September forecast and down 13 percent from 2011. This represents the lowest production in the United States since 2006. Based on conditions as of October 1, yields are expected to average 122.0 bushels per acre, down 0.8 bushel from the September forecast and 25.2 bushels below the 2011 average. If realized, this will be the lowest average yield since 1995. Area harvested for grain is forecast at 87.7 million acres, up less than 1 percent from the September forecast and up 4 percent from 2011. Acreage updates were made in several States based on administrative data.
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Posted: September 4th, 2012 | Author: Rod Sherkin | Filed under: Cotton | Tags: cotton | No Comments »
Cotton warehouses from China to Australia are bulging with the biggest-ever glut, a year after record prices spurred farmers to expand output.
Prices tumbled 16 percent this year.
Harvests will exceed demand for a third year, swelling stockpiles by 10 percent to 74.67 million 480-pound bales by August, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates. Inventories in China, the biggest user, will triple over two years to a record as domestic demand slumps to the lowest since 2005, USDA data show. Cotton may drop 12 percent to 67.87 cents a pound by the end of the year, according to the average of 20 analyst and merchant estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
via Cotton Glut Seen Extending Slump as Levi’s Costs Slide – Bloomberg.
Posted: August 7th, 2012 | Author: Pascal Blanc | Filed under: Commodities, Cotton | Tags: cotton | No Comments »
The cotton crop in Gujarat, the largest producer in India, may plunge as much as 30 percent in the harvest starting Oct. 1 from 12 million bales of 170 kilograms each a year earlier, as the worst monsoon since 2009 parches fields and curbs planting, potentially cutting exports for the first time in three years.
Rainfall in some parts of Gujarat is as much as 81 percent below a 50-year average as more than 50 percent of India is threatened by drought, shriveling crops from rice to cotton and oilseeds.
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