Guide to Commodities 2013

The recent fortunes made by investors in rare earth metals and gold are just two shining examples of what an extremely profitable investment class commodities can be. From aluminum and platinum to zinc and silver, oil and gas to cocoa and wheat, this Guide to Commodities from the Economist Intelligence Unit is a comprehensive overview of the forces at work in the world of commodities.

The price volatility of so many commodities over the past decade has underlined their economic importance and how dependent we are on them: the price of gold has soared to new peaks (before tumbling in the last few weeks) as currencies have endured a crisis of confidence, demand from China has pushed metal prices up, instability in the Middle East and North Africa has had its effect on the oil price and food prices have been increasing in parallel with worries about whether there is enough to feed the world. Read the rest of Guide to Commodities 2013 » » »

Winter weather in the US adds worries for cereals

The United States Department of Agriculture’s Crop Progress report, published last week, showed conditions deteriorated in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas following freezing temperatures in April.

Winter extended unusually in the United States, there were more than 30 cm of snow in western Iowa, a major grain states in the country. When there is no snow, it’s rain preventing farmers from sowing. Having sowed only 5% of corn in may had not happened in the United States for nearly thirty years.

“We’ve been concerned by some extraordinarily cold morning temperatures,” said Todd Hultman, a grains analyst at DTN. “The USDA report just added confirmation that people are expecting damage from those conditions.”

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Corn posts biggest-ever two-day decline on big supply

Chicago corn prices experienced their biggest two-day drop on record, tumbling 12.6 percent, or 93 cents, as larger-than-expected U.S. stockpiles weighed on the market, causing hedge funds to sell heavily.

Pressured by corn, Chicago wheat fell to its lowest nearby price in nine months, and soybeans hit a nearly three-month low.

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A record wheat production expected in 2013

After falling 5.74% between the 2011/12 and the 2012/13 season to 656 Mt according to the International Grain Council, the world wheat production should bounce back. In 2013/14, the harvested areas should be at their highest level in four years, while a rise in yields would stimulate the production by 4%.

These estimates are similar to those of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), published earlier this month. In 2013, global wheat production (690 Mt according to FAO, +4.3%) should be driven by the European Union (138 Mt), where the acreage should increase thanks to high prices.

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Wheat: American soils victims of the consequences of drought

Despite the rain from November to January, the American cultures should still undergo a major water deficit in 2013. The drought of 2012, the worst in the last fifty years, has resulted in the soil drying out which is difficult for the farmers to manage.

According to the Palmer Drought Index, 56% of the U.S. are still in drought at the end of February, mainly in the High Plains region. Kansas, the largest producer of wheat in the United States, but also Nebraska, Oklahoma and South Dakota are in extreme drought according to the latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor.

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Wheat production 2013-2014

The International Grains Council (IGC) presented at the end of last week its first forecast for wheat production for 2013~2014 as part of his Grain Market Report. It forecasts a global harvest of 682.2 million tons, up 4%, or 26 million tonnes, compared to 2012.

The increase in volumes mainly reflects a poor 2012-2013 harvest marked by droughts in several major producing countries. 2013-2014 harvest would not quite reach the level of 2011-2012, which was set at 696 million tonnes.

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Wheat: Global production forecast down

In its report published on November 29th, Grain Market Report, the International Grains Council (IGC) forecasted a wheat production of 654 million tonnes for 2012-2013 against 695 million for the previous season. In July, the estimate for wheat production was 665 million tonnes.

The grains supply and demand forecasts for 2012/13 have been revised slightly as harvests have been completed in some countries, but the outlook is largely unchanged. Total grains production is expected to fall by 5% year-on-year, and despite a contraction in consumption for the first time in 14 years, stocks are set to fall by 45m t to 324m.

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US Drought 2013 Outlook

The most recent Seasonal Drought Outlook indicates much of the area from southwest Minnesota to western Missouri through most of the Great Plains and Rockies will continue to experience drought conditions through the winter season. However, some improvement is expected on the eastern fringe of this area from North Dakota into Minnesota and Wisconsin, eastern Iowa into eastern Missouri.

The Midwest drought, the worst since 1956, sent corn prices to record highs earlier this year and choked traffic on the Mississippi River as water levels fell. It is now blamed for the worst crop conditions for U.S. winter wheat in at least 27 years, which will affect feed costs for cattle producers in the Great Plains.

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Soy, Wheat Fall as U.S. Forecasts Ease Supply Concerns

Soybeans tumbled to a four-month low and wheat fell the most in a month after the U.S. raised its estimates for crop inventory including corn, easing concern over tight supplies following the worst drought since 1956.

Soybean futures for January delivery fell 3 percent to close at $14.5125 a bushel at 2 p.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Earlier, the oilseed touched $14.49, the lowest for a most-active contract since July 3. On Sept. 4, the price rose to a record $17.89.

Wheat futures for December delivery dropped 1.7 percent to $8.865 a bushel, the biggest decline since Oct. 12. The price has surged 36 percent this year. On July 23, the grain reached $9.4725, the highest since August 2008.

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Longest Sugar Glut in Decade Extends on Indian Crop

Sugar will expand global supply already forecast by the International Sugar Organization to reach a record this season. Producers from Russia to Thailand raised output after prices averaged the most in three decades in 2011.

Futures fell 28 percent since March on prospects for a third straight annual surplus, helping to contain the surge in global food costs caused by droughts in the U.S., Europe and Australia.

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