Copper: Forecast to September 2013

Copper is currently on the rebound, on the back of its third bearish cycle from February to April. Shanghai Cifco Futures Co. expects prices to climb until the end of June before pulling back to $6,037.50 per tonne by September.

Copper prices are up slightly in London, after inventories dropped to a seven-month low in China, the world’s biggest consumer of industrial metal, while U.S. consumer confidence rose to the highest since 2007. Three-month copper climbed 1.1 percent on Thursday to sit at $7,279 per tonne. Copper was seeing resistance at the $7.240 per tonne, but the day’s climb seems to have broken that barrier. Over in New York, copper futures were behaving much the same. Copper for July was up 0.9 percent at $3.2945 a pound.

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Rebar Set for Weekly Decline as Iron Ore Falls to Five-Month Low

Steel reinforcement-bar futures headed for a weekly loss as the price of iron ore, the main ingredient in steelmaking, fell to the lowest in five months. Rebar for delivery in October on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as much as 0.6 percent to 3,529 ($575) a metric ton and was at 3,531 at 10:15 a.m. local time.

Futures have declined 3 percent this week, the most since the week ended April 19.

Ore with 62 percent iron content at the port of Tianjin fell 1.1 percent to $125 a dry ton yesterday, according to The Steel Index Ltd. “The view that iron ore prices will continue to decline is becoming more convincing, which leads to expectations for lower steel-products prices in the second half of 2013,” Zhang Lei, analyst at Nanhua Futures Co., said by phone from Shenyang today.

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Surging Chinese Steel Exports Put Pressure on World Prices

A surge in Chinese steel production and a flood of exports are pressuring world-wide steel prices despite Beijing’s efforts to rein in the steel industry, in the latest example of the global impact of China‘s massive industrial overcapacity.

Global steel prices have fallen 3.5% since February to an average of $710 a ton, according to MEPS steel consultancy. While China hasn’t been shipping much more directly to the U.S., much of its material is destined for the world’s largest economy via trans-shipments through Japan, South Korea, Singapore or Malaysia.

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Guide to Commodities 2013

The recent fortunes made by investors in rare earth metals and gold are just two shining examples of what an extremely profitable investment class commodities can be. From aluminum and platinum to zinc and silver, oil and gas to cocoa and wheat, this Guide to Commodities from the Economist Intelligence Unit is a comprehensive overview of the forces at work in the world of commodities.

The price volatility of so many commodities over the past decade has underlined their economic importance and how dependent we are on them: the price of gold has soared to new peaks (before tumbling in the last few weeks) as currencies have endured a crisis of confidence, demand from China has pushed metal prices up, instability in the Middle East and North Africa has had its effect on the oil price and food prices have been increasing in parallel with worries about whether there is enough to feed the world. Read the rest of Guide to Commodities 2013 » » »

Investors are losing interest in gold

Gold futures for June delivery dropped 0.3 percent to $1,432.60 an ounce at 10:46 a.m. on the Comex in New York. The price headed for the third straight decline, the longest slump since April 4. Through May 10, the metal dropped 14 percent this year.

Leading wealth managers have been switching out of commodities since the start of the year in favour of equities and bonds as they look for yield, a trend which accelerated in April with a major sell-off across the commodities field, led by a collapse in the gold price.

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Baosteel cuts steel products prices in China

Baosteel, the nation’s largest listed steelmaker has cut the prices of its main steel products by about three percent for the first time in the nine months, Shanghai Securities News reported.

According to the factory policy for June bookings issued by Baosteel on Thursday, hot rolled steel plate is down 180 yuan ($29) per ton, while the price of cold rolled steel plate is down 150 yuan per ton, and the prices of most mid-thick products have been decreased by 200 yuan per ton. The price of mid-thick boat deck, however, stays the same.

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Historical Nickel Price Tumbling, Takes Monthly Stainless Index Down

The Stainless MMI® took a rather large blow in May, falling 6 points from 91 to 85, primarily on the back of falling nickel prices, falling 304 prices in China as well as 304 China scrap prices.

A nickel glut has forced down the price by nearly about 50 percent since 2011, according to a recent Reuters report.

via Historical Nickel Price Tumbling, Takes Monthly Stainless Index Down | MetalMiner

China’s runaway steel train

By rights, many companies should have closed. Instead, they march on like zombies, China’s industrial undead.
China simply makes too much steel. The government estimates that China’s annual production is about 100 million tonnes more than it should be, a figure equal to the whole annual output of the industry in the United States.

Worse, China has far too many steel companies, more than 700 at last count. Add in iron companies and companies that roll or otherwise shape steel, and the total comes to more than 7,000. Despite repeated government attempts to force them to consolidate into fewer, bigger companies, most of them are still small and inefficient.

via China’s runaway steel train on Propurchaser.

Lumber Prices Rise Most Since 1993: Lumber Mills Expand

Analysts forecast lumber prices will be 9.8% above the current  November contract and the highest for the period since 1996, as North American mills saw lumber at the fastest pace in 6 years after a recovering U.S. housing market, a beetle infestation in Canada, and increasing Chinese demand drove the biggest price surge in two decades.

About 55.5 billion of the industry’s standard board feet will be made this year, 6.7 percent more than in 2012, CIBC World Markets estimates. Futures will average $371 per 1,000 board feet on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in the fourth quarter, according to the mean of nine analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

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Base metals caught up in the turmoil

Industrial metals prices trading on the London Metal Exchange were shaken this week by an unexpected slowdown in Chinese growth, followed by gloomy indicators in the United States, which cast doubt on global growth strength.

Like oil and gold, base metals were taken Monday in a huge selloff movement affecting all commodities: speculative investors were rushing to withdraw from the market.

“The week started quietly in Asian trade … until China published macroeconomic statistics that totally reversed the trend“, said Edward Meir, analyst at broker INTL FCStone.

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