The USDA has projected domestic 2014-2015 soybean production at a record-high 3.816 billion bushels, with a strong estimated yield of 45.4 bushels/harvested acre, according to the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand and Estimate report, released August 12.
Chicago Board of Trade September soybean oil futures Tuesday settled down 30 points to 32.66 cents/lb, the lowest front-month settle since July 2009, when it was at 32.58 cents/lb.
The tumbling price of soybean oil, which is the primary feedstock for biodiesel produced in the US, is boosting profit margins for producers as biodiesel prices have held steady despite the cheaper costs.
US soybean crop conditions for the 2014-15 harvest are 71% in good or excellent condition, nine percentage points higher than the year-ago condition, USDA data showed Monday.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2014/15 is forecast at $9.35 to $11.35 per bushel, down 15 cents on both ends. Soybean meal and oil prices are forecast at $340 to $380, down 10 dollars at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 35 to 39 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint.
U.S. soybean balance sheet changes for 2013/14 include reduced imports and increased exports. Imports are lowered 5 million bushels to 80 million based in part on revised import data for September – December 2013 from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Exports are raised 20 million bushels to 1,640 million reflecting both revised export data for September through December 2013 from the Department of Commerce and inspections data for July 2014.
These changes are offset with lower residual use, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 140 million bushels. With these changes, the 2013/14 soybean stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 4.2 percent, which if realized would be the lowest in more than 40 years.