The International Grains Council (IGC) presented at the end of last week its first forecast for wheat production for 2013~2014 as part of his Grain Market Report. It forecasts a global harvest of 682.2 million tons, up 4%, or 26 million tonnes, compared to 2012.
The increase in volumes mainly reflects a poor 2012-2013 harvest marked by droughts in several major producing countries. 2013-2014 harvest would not quite reach the level of 2011-2012, which was set at 696 million tonnes.
The increase in global demand should absorb most of the additional volumes, according to the IGC.
Regarding international trade, some exporting countries, like the ones around the Black Sea, could limit their wheat exports because of their low stock levels.
These estimates are based on wheat planting intentions, but could significantly change depending on weather conditions.