Inventories of all wheat varieties as of June 1, 2014, will total 659 million bushels, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. That’s more than the 655 million projected by analysts in a Bloomberg survey and less than the 670 million the government forecast in May. U.S. output will drop this year to 2.08 billion bushels, compared with last month’s prediction of 2.057 billion.
Wheat traded in Chicago, a global benchmark, fell about 10 percent this year on the outlook for rising production. The projected rebound follows drought in 2013 that hurt harvests in Russia, Ukraine, southern Europe and the U.S.
According to the official information released by international organization Agricultural Market Information System, AMIS, wheat harvest levels might reach their highest during 2013-2014 season due to increased yield in European as well as Black Sea region. Wheat production is expected to increase to 702 million tons compared to 659 million tons in 2012-2013 season, which was marked by drought. Wheat stock might grow to 173 million tons compared to 164 million tons in the previous season. Global demand is forecasted at 694 million tons due to growing population as well as animal feeding purposes.
Australia, the world’s fourth-biggest wheat exporter, increased its production estimate after rains boosted soil moisture, adding to global supply. Output is set to reach 25.4 million metric tons in 2013-2014 from 24.9 million tons estimated in March and 22.1 million tons a year earlier, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, or Abares, said today. Exports may decline to 19.6 million tons in the year starting Oct. 1 from 20.1 million tons, it said.
Wheat faces a “bearish” summer and autumn on increased supply from the Black Sea region and uncertainty about imports, said Francois Luguenot, head of market analysis at French grain cooperative Union InVivo.