Cocoa prices fell at their lowest since January 2012, after falling by 13% over the past two-and-a-half months. Investors fear an abundance of beans on the market due to the rain forecasted in the coming days in Ivory Coast.
On the ICE in New York, the contract for May delivery was at 2,031 dollars per ton, down 2.45%. Cocoa prices decreased again earlier this week as 40 to 50 millimeters of rain are expected to drop on Ivory Coast and Ghana, respectively first and second largest producer of cocoa.
Beans stocks should increase further in the coming weeks despite the fact they already went up by 16% last month.
On March 1, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) projected a shortfall of 45,000 metric tons in the 12 months ending Sept. 30. Output in Ivory Coast was estimated at 1.47 million tons, down from 1.486 million tons a year earlier, and Ghana’s production will be 820,000 tons, the London-based group said.
The ICCO appears to be confirming a suspicion that has already been simmering on the market for some time: the expectation, initially to be heard frequently, that the deficit could turn out to be around the 100,000-ton mark, is likely to have been pitched significantly too high.