One month after the southwestern province of Buenos Aires, the heart of the Argentine agricultural power, has been under water, Argentina is now facing a drought, leading analysts to revise soybeans production forecast down.
The Ministry of Agriculture estimates the soybeans production at 42.9 million tons this year, but professionals from Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario, the Rosario Board of Trade, and the first international port for soybeans, are more pessimistic. They expect around 40.5 million tonnes, against 52 to 53 million tons forecasted in spring.
The effect would be less on corn, as the market is oversupplied. La Niña related drought is not a new phenomenon, but the weather is expected to be particularly dry this years in Argentina. This is also the winter wheat season in the southern hemisphere, and the fields are not irrigated. The Argentine government,which limits exports in the name of national food security, plans to export this year 6 million tonnes of wheat out of about 12.5 million tons produced, vs. 14 million tonnes last year.