Global prices may fall 29 percent to an average $123 a metric ton in 2015 from a record $173 this year, according to the median estimates of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The decline contrasts with estimates for little change in copper and a 10 percent increase for aluminum in the same period, London Metal Exchange futures prices show.
Iron ore is set for the first four- year drop since at least 1982 as supplies surge, threatening to end record earnings at Vale SA (VALE3), Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), the world´s biggest producers.
Iron ore supplies for export will jump 53 percent by 2015 even as slower growth in Chinese steelmaking saps demand, Goldman Sachs & Partners Australia Pty. said. That will reduce prices and profit that reached records this year for BHP and Brazil’s Vale, whose net income will fall almost 50 percent by mid-decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.